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Calculated Risk has a graph that shows the history of unemployment rates for the last fifty years or so.
Sure enough, unemployment is a lagging indicator: the rate never falls until a recovery is underway. The pattern that surprises, however, is how quickly the rates fell in the 60s, 70s, and 80s after the economy turned the corner into recovery. It’s only in the last 20 years (two recessions) that lag has been so long. What changed in the economy around 20 years ago that would account for this growth in the time lag?
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